The intersection of methane emission, climate change and its impact on lives and the environment is highlighted in this analysis by Juliet Ukanwosu. The report emphasizes why focus should be on methane emissions reduction more than other greenhouse gases, as Nigeria and the world at large battle the climate crisis. The report further calls attention to operational and regulatory issues within the Nigerian oil and gas sector that serve to fuel methane emissions
The race against climate crisis
That the earth and its inhabitants are in a crisis state posed by climate change is no longer news. The focus now is on the differentiated impact of climate change across continents and regions and how world governments are planning to combat the crisis.
In plain terms, climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. While these shifts may be natural, however, since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas, which produces heat-trapping gases.
According to scientists, as emissions from fossil fuels blanket the earth, they trap the sun’s heat, leading to global warming and climate change. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history.
Consequently, extreme weather conditions such as rising temperatures, droughts, rising sea levels, storms and economic losses are being reported globally. This disruption to the usual balance of nature poses many risks to humans and all other forms of life on earth.
How is Nigeria affected?
The impact of climate change differs from one region to another; neither Nigeria nor any other country on earth is free of this impact. The degree of a country’s contributions to climate warming is inconsequential, the effect is universal. In Nigeria, hotter temperatures, drought, flooding, and rising sea levels are among the biggest impacts.
To the northern part of Nigeria, drought and desertification threatens human and wildlife existence, while flooding and rising sea levels remain a constant threat to the existence of communities in the southern part.
According to the World Bank estimates, about 41 million Nigerians live in high climate exposure areas.
For example, TheCable in a 2023 special report, detailed communities in coastal Patani and Burutu LGA of Delta State, South-South Nigeria, that have been swept under water by the rising level of the River Niger.
A similar fate has been the lot of other Nigerian coastal communities. Reports by the World Bank indicate that an estimated 53 million people in Nigeria may need to be relocated due to increase in sea level, by the end of the century.
Still on water troubles, data by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency 2024 Annual Flood Outlook shows that part of 148 local government areas in 31 states of the federation fall within the high flood-risk areas, while part of 249 LGAs in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) fall within the moderate flood-risk areas, spanning from April to November, with potential impacts on population, agriculture and the economy. Everyone is bracing for the impact; these are not pretty times!
The situation in the North is not any better. A November 2023 fact sheet by the USAID profiling Nigeria’s climate reality highlighted drought and reduced rainfall in the North as a major challenge to existence.
According to the fact sheet, reduced rainfall inhibits the country’s hydropower systems (mostly located in the northern parts) and hinder agricultural production and fishing, reducing food security and negatively impacting health and nutrition.
A glaring example of climate change impact in Northern Nigeria is the near disappearance of Lake Chad, once a fresh water source for communities. A 2018 UN Environment Programme article suggests that over the last 60 years, Lake Chad has decreased by 90 percent mostly as a result of extended drought and climate change.
Ethnic and communal clashes are now common over control of available land and water sources. Out of desperation for fresh water for fishing, green pastures for livestock or arable land for farming, hundreds of lives have been painfully lost to these frequent clashes. Diverse opinions suggest that the now very deadly herders/farmers clashes owe its roots to the impact of climate change.
In a recent survey commissioned by the Global Methane Hub (GMH) conducted in 17 countries including Nigeria, 40 percent of Nigerian respondents said that the changing climate has an ‘extreme’ or ‘strong’ impact on their lives, with eight in 10 Nigerians supporting actions to minimise the impacts of climate change.
The survey further reported that 45 percent of Nigerians are very concerned about water quality, with 54 percent of Nigerians concerned about crop yields, while 44 percent are concerned about water levels, and 44 percent about droughts.
All gloom and doom?
To address the situation, world governments are embracing energy transition – a shift in production and use of energy from fossil fuels to renewables and other forms of cleaner energies.
While there have been several global efforts to reduce climate change, the December 2015 Paris Agreement at COP 21 became the driving legally binding international treaty on climate change, with an overarching goal to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels. On the back of the Paris Agreement, there have been several Partnerships, Pledges and Commitments towards embracing energy transition.
As energy transition is being embraced globally, reducing GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and various synthetic chemicals, jumps to top conversations. Of these however, abating Methane, considered the most potent GHG becomes pivotal.
Why Methane?
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential up to 80 times greater than carbon dioxide. It is an important short-term climate action as it only remains in the atmosphere for a decade, but is considered the most lethal greenhouse gas.
Gas pipeline leaking
Methane is emitted from a variety of anthropogenic (human-influenced) and natural sources. Anthropogenic emission sources include landfills, oil and natural gas systems, agricultural activities, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment, and certain industrial processes.
The largest source of anthropogenic methane emissions is agriculture which is responsible for around a quarter of the total. This is closely followed by the energy sector, which includes emissions from coal, oil, natural gas and biofuels.
Experts say that eliminating methane emissions could avoid as much as 0.1degrees C of warming by mid-century—equivalent to zeroing out the emissions of every car and truck in the world.
The United Nations designates methane as the most lethal GHG due to its structure. It traps more heat in the atmosphere per molecule than carbon dioxide (CO2), making it 80 times more harmful than CO2 for 20 years after it is released. The UN estimates that reducing methane emissions by 45 percent by 2030 could help world governments meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Similarly, the US Environmental Protection Agency agrees that because methane is both a powerful greenhouse gas and short-lived compared to carbon dioxide, achieving significant reductions would have a rapid and significant effect on atmospheric warming potential.
Methane is reported to be responsible for around 30 percent of the rise in global temperatures since the industrial revolution, and rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions are key to limit near-term warming and improve air quality. Even though CO2 has a longer-lasting effect, methane sets the pace for warming in the near term.
Oil and gas sector contributions to methane emissions
The energy sector accounts for 40 percent of global methane emissions and the oil and gas sector accounts for 70 percent of the energy sector’s emissions mostly through fugitive emissions, venting and flaring. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that around 40 percent of methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction in 2023 could have been avoided without additional costs.
Recently, the organisation called for a quick reduction in methane emissions in the oil and gas sector in order to achieve climate protection targets, stating that almost 120 million tonnes of methane were released in 2023 from the production of oil and gas.
According to the IEA Director, Fatuh Birol, “A reduction in methane emissions of 75 percent by 2030 is necessary to limit global warming. It is now important to translate commitments made by almost 200 countries at the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai last December into action. This alone would halve methane emissions by 2030.”
Reducing methane emissions within Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is crucial because according to the World Resources Institute, Nigeria leads as the top methane emitter in Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for 18 percent of total emissions, followed distantly by South Africa, with 8 percent.
Data from the IEA show that in 2022, offshore oil production accounted for 48 percent of total methane emissions in Nigeria, onshore oil operations 30 percent, onshore gas 10 percent, while gas and LNG facilities were responsible for six percent methane emissions.
Why methane emission persists in Nigeria’s oil sector
There are a number of reasons why methane emissions have continued unabated in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. These include:
Gas Flaring: The practice of flaring gas continues to be prevalent in Nigeria’s oil industry, significantly contributing to methane emissions. Addressing certain operational and regulatory weaknesses can help the country reduce gas flares by 50 percent relative to 2020 values.
Gas flare data: The lack of a comprehensive data system on gas flaring hampers effective compliance.
Gas flare penalty: There is a weak penalty system for gas flaring in Nigeria. Currently, companies producing more than 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) pay a fine of $2 per 1,000 scf of gas flared, while companies producing less than 10,000bpd pay a fine of $0.5.
Venting & leaks: Venting, the process of releasing unignited gas, and leaks from gas infrastructure are common within the industry despite its contributions to methane emissions.
Reporting Framework: Another major factor is the country’s dependence on largely voluntary Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) disclosure frameworks.
Gas flare commercialisation programme: There are delays with the Nigerian gas flare commercialisation programme and this prolongs emissions window. The government says it is targeting an injection of $3 billion capital investment to fund the projects.
Poor regulatory functions: Weaknesses in monitoring, and enforcement of penalty on defaulters encourage emissions. The weak coordination among government agencies undermine effective regulatory oversight.
Speaking during a methane emissions reduction workshop organised in Abuja by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) in collaboration with the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID), Dr. Charles Ofori, Policy Lead at Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP), said Nigeria could do better with its emission statistics if some major weaknesses in the oil and gas sector were addressed.
Other factors encouraging methane emissions according to Ofori includes, limited political will on methane management, consensus on who is responsible for emission, reduction investments, and inadequate awareness among civil society and think tanks.
Nigeria’s Current methane emission abatement plan
Speaking to this, Senior Officer, NRGI, Nigeria Program, Tengi George-Ikoli, who referenced the Nigeria Energy Transition Plan, said the broad plan targets reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas, power, cooking, industry and transport sectors.
With regards to cooking, she explained that Nigeria is targeting speedy replacement of firewood, kerosene and charcoal by LPG until 2030 and 75 percent of firewood stoves replaced by 2030 and 50 percent LPG stoves.
In the area of transport, the plan is to reduce passenger vehicle emissions accounting for 72 percent of transport emissions and passenger vehicle mix with gas/diesel reduced by three percent in 2030, while a shift to blue/green hydrogen is planned for the industrial sector.
On oil and gas, the plan involves 100 percent reduction in flaring by 2030 and 95 percent fugitive emissions by 2050, including exporting/repurposing gas, while the plan for the power sector is an initial expansion of gas generation capacity, and establishment of a baseload for integrating renewables.
The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, further informed that an estimated 300 mscf/d of gas is targeted to be taken off flare, through the gas flare commercialisation programme.
To support the above plan, the country has a number of enabling laws and policies in place, these includes;
• Petroleum Industry Act 2021: The law establishes the governance, fiscal and regulatory framework for the petroleum industry. Among others, it prohibits gas flaring and venting in oil and gas production.
• Flare Gas (Prevention of Waste and Pollution) Regulations 2018: This regulation aims to reduce environmental and social impacts caused by gas flaring. It provides for environmental protection, and creates social and economic benefits from gas flare capture, vesting ownership of flared gas to the state at no cost.
• Guidelines for management of fugitive methane and GHG emissions in the upstream oil and gas operations in Nigeria: The guidelines establish the actions and mechanisms that operators will adopt for the prevention and control of GHG/methane emissions. The provisions are applicable to new and existing facilities.
• Standards for Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR): This work practice is designed to identify and repair leaking equipment so that emissions can be reduced.
From the foregoing, Nigeria is not in want of laws or policies aimed at reducing methane emissions, but effective implementation of these laws and commitments remain a challenge.
Way forward
When contacted, Nigeria’s National Oil Company (NOC) told Extractive360 that the Company has implemented initiatives focused on mitigating methane emissions within its operations as part of its ‘Goal Zero’ pledge.
Chief Corporate Communications Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Olufemi Soneye, said the NNPC Ltd upholds a robust Health, Safety, and Environment (HSE) policy, reflecting its commitment to the Goal Zero objectives.
He explained that Goal Zero signifies the NOC’s pledge to achieve zero harm to individuals, (including its staff and the residents of its host communities), zero harm to equipment and facilities, and zero harm to the environment.
As a way of demonstrating industry leadership towards methane abatement, Soneye said the NNPCL is establishing partnerships with other IOCs and JV partners across its operations to deploy technologies to reduce methane emissions.
“Notably, we have established a partnership with TotalEnergies to utilise the Airborne Ultralight Spectrometer for Environmental Application (AUSEA) technology, aimed at detecting and reducing methane emissions across our upstream operations,” he said.
He also disclosed that the NNPC Ltd is collaborating with the US Department of State and Deloitte on a project centred on reducing methane emissions, with OML 34 serving as a pilot.
These efforts, he said, supplement other measures undertaken by NNPC Ltd in conjunction with its Joint Venture partners to minimise gas flaring, aligning with Nigeria’s commitment to global climate change mitigation efforts, as reaffirmed at COP28 in the UAE last year.
Similarly, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Engr. Farouk Ahmed, warned that Nigeria faces the risk of falling behind in the transition to net-zero carbon emissions if it does not devise strategies to confront emissions challenges.
Ahmed, who noted that the vision of the NMDPRA is to promote economic and social development through sustainable energy, said: “From our perspective as the regulator of this sector, this transition is not just about changing the name or logo. It is about changing our mindset, our operations, and our impact on Nigeria and the world.
“It is about reducing our carbon footprint and promoting energy efficiency. It is about ensuring that businesses not only power Nigeria today, but also preserve Nigeria for tomorrow,” Ahmed said.
Furthermore, the Nigeria Upstream Regulatory Petroleum Commission (NURPC) is coordinating the methane mitigation guidelines process. It requires developing a baseline for fugitive methane using the Country Methane Abatement Tool (CoMAT) and developing a methodology and framework for data reporting for methane management.
According to the Climate & Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), as of mid-2023, over 70 percent of oil and gas operators had complied with the new regulations, by submitting a greenhouse gas emissions management plan within six months of the regulations start date. The is required to detail at a minimum, the scope of their operations and emission sources, methodologies of emissions quantification, yearly and long-term percentage reductions on emissions; and set a timeline to replace single cycle steam turbines with combined cycle by 2030.
Operators are also required to submit quarterly reports covering fugitive emissions and GHG monitoring reports to NUPRC on a quarterly basis. These requirements apply to oil and gas production facilities, export terminals and gas processing, gathering and boosting stations.
Overall, the methane abatement guidelines have an objective to reduce methane emissions from flaring by 100 percent by 2030, and fugitive methane from leaks by 95 percent by 2050. If achieved, these reductions will comprise a major component of Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets – which are an unconditional reduction of 20 percent and conditional reduction of additional 47 percent with international support, the CCAC said.
Further recommendations
In addition to ongoing efforts, there is the need for the Nigerian government to take responsibility for their emissions and set realistic plans to eliminate methane emissions.
The development and clarity of institutional roles for methane management in the short term, is vital, and the NOC must continue to lead by example and demonstrate leadership in implementing methane management strategies.
The government and companies should jointly invest in methane abatement technologies, while a unified method for methane emission estimation across sectors should be established.
Furthermore, there is the need to design a specific framework to strengthen methane emissions reduction, restructure incentives for methane capture and utilisation, and set robust penalty mechanisms for non-compliance.
Conclusively, enhanced collaborations and coordinated public, private, civil society and other relevant stakeholder’s efforts to ensure coherence in the actualisation of national targets towards methane emissions reduction in Nigeria must be prioritised.
This report was sponsored by the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development, with funding support from Natural Resource Governance Institute.